Contents
Acknowledgments vii
Introduction 1
CHAPTER 1: Why Project Risk Management? 4
The Doomed Project * Risk * Opportunities and Risks * Benefits of Project
Risk Management * Costs of Project Risk Management * The Project Risk
Management Process * Anatomy of a Failed Project: The First Panama
Canal Project
CHAPTER 2: Planning for Risk Management 22
Project Selection * Overall Project Planning Processes * Defining Risk
Management for the Project * Risk Management Infrastructure for the
Organization * The PERIL Database * A Second Panama Canal Project:
Sponsorship and Initiation (1902--1904)
CHAPTER 3: Identifying Project Scope Risk 49
Sources of Scope Risk * Defining Deliverables * High-Level Risk
Assessment Tools * Setting Limits * Work Breakdown Structure
* Other Scope-Related Risks * Documenting the Risks * Panama Canal:
Setting the Objective (1905--1906)
CHAPTER 4: Identifying Project Schedule Risk 79
Sources of Schedule Risk * Activity Definition * Estimating Activity Duration
* Activity Sequencing * Documenting the Risks * Panama Canal:
Planning (1905--1907)
CHAPTER 5: Identifying Project Resource Risk 108
Sources of Resource Risk * Resource Planning * Staff Acquisition
* Outsourcing * Effort Estimates Adjusted for Risk * Cost Estimates,
Budgets, and Risk * Documenting the Risks * Panama Canal:
Resources (1905--1907)
CHAPTER 6: Managing Project Constraints and
Documenting Risks 136
Analyzing Constraints * Managing Opportunities * Scope Modification
* Resource Modification * Schedule Modification * Assessing Options and
Updating Plans * Seeking Missing Risks * Creating a Risk Register * Panama Canal:
Improving the Plan (1906)
CHAPTER 7: Quantifying and Analyzing Activity Risks 161
Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Analysis * Probability and Impact * Qualitative
Risk Assessment * Quantitative Risk Assessment * Panama Canal: Risks (1906--1914)
CHAPTER 8: Managing Activity Risks 189
Root Cause Analysis * Categories of Risk * Selecting Risks to Address
* Risk Response Planning * Dealing with Risk Causes * Implementing Preventative
Ideas * Dealing with Risk Effects * Documenting Your Risk Plans and Risk Owners
* Managing a Specific Risk * Bow Tie Analysis for Documenting Risk Responses
* Panama Canal: Risk Plans (1906--1914)
CHAPTER 9: Quantifying and Analyzing Project Risk 232
Project-Level Risk * Aggregating Risk Responses * Project Modeling and
Simulations * Integrated Schedule/Cost Assessment * System Analysis
* Critical Chain Considerations * Questionnaires and Surveys * Analysis of Scale
* Project Appraisal * Scenario Analysis * Project Metrics * Financial Metrics
* Panama Canal: Overall Risks (1907)
CHAPTER 10: Managing Project Risk 276
Project Documentation Requirements * Project Start-Up * Selecting and
Implementing Project Metrics * Establishing Reserves and Managing for
Contingency * Project Baseline Negotiation * Project Plan Validation
* Specification Change Control * Panama Canal: Adjusting the Objective (1907)
CHAPTER 11: Monitoring and Controlling Risky Projects 299
Don't Panic * Applying the Plan * Project Monitoring * Collecting Project Status
* Metrics and Trend Analysis * Responding to Issues * Communication and Risk
Reporting * Project Archive * Managing Risk Reserves * Project Reviews and Risk
Reassessment * Taking Over a Troubled Project * Panama Canal: Risk-Based
Replanning (1908)
CHAPTER 12: Closing Projects 321
Project Closure * Project Retrospective Analysis * Panama Canal: Completion (1914)
CHAPTER 13: Program, Portfolio, and Enterprise Risk Management 330
Project Risk Management in Context * Program Risk Management * Portfolio Risk
Management * Enterprise Risk Management * Panama Canal: Over the Years
CHAPTER 14: Conclusion 367
Choosing to Act * Managing Your Risks * Panama Canal: The Twenty-First Century
APPENDIX: Selected Detail from the PERIL Database 373
Scope Risks * Schedule Risks * Resource Risks
Index 381
